Gladden, Matthew E. “One Number Is Rarely Enough: Why prediction intervals are critical (and challenging!) for HR predictive analytics.” Medium.com, March 12, 2023.
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Summary. This text is Part 1 of a three-article series on “Advanced modelling of workers’ future performance ranges through ANNs with custom loss functions.” It explores why it’s useful to predict the probable ceiling and floor for an employee’s future performance – and why it’s difficult to do so effectively, using conventional methods based on mean absolute error or standard deviation.